Super El Niño Could Cause 451,000 Excess Deaths

A super El Niño could cause an estimated 451,000 additional heat deaths by February 2027, according to climate researchers. The projected deaths would come from the extreme heat linked to the unusually strong climate event.

The super El Niño is already pushing temperatures to record levels. Researchers say the event has reached the highest temperature recorded for an El Niño several months before its expected peak.

The projected heat deaths cover the period from June 2026 to February 2027. However, researchers expect elevated heat deaths to continue until June or July 2027.

Super El Niño Brings Heat Risks

The countries expected to face some of the highest impacts include Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan, India and Brazil. The United States also ranks among the 20 most affected countries, with about 3,500 additional heat deaths projected.

Researchers said the super El Niño could affect people across tropical regions, including parts of Africa and Southeast Asia. They also expect the event to increase risks from droughts, wildfires and flooding.

The researchers used temperature and mortality data from 24,378 regions around the world. They compared monthly heat deaths with average levels recorded between 1996 and 2025. They then combined those figures with forecasts for higher temperatures linked to the super El Niño.

The projections could help governments identify areas where heat protection measures could save lives. These measures include better heat warnings, cooling centres and additional medical staff during periods of extreme heat.

Protections for outdoor workers could also reduce exposure during the hottest periods.

Food Security Also at Risk

The effects of the super El Niño could extend beyond heat-related deaths. The World Food Programme warned in August that El Niño could push about 50 million people into acute hunger and contribute to higher food prices.

Researchers also described the current event as a possible indication of future climate conditions. They said temperatures during the super El Niño resemble levels that the climate crisis could produce in about 20 years.

Professor Michael Greenstone of the Climate Impact Lab said the projected death toll represents people and families around the world.

Dr Tamma Carleton of the University of California, Berkeley, said stronger emergency responses could save lives during the current event. She also called for tools that can protect communities as extreme temperatures become more common.

El Niño remains a natural climate event. However, researchers said global warming can raise the temperature baseline on which these events occur. As a result, communities may face greater risks when a super El Niño develops.