The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) says oil prices will stay higher throughout 2026. The agency expects the increase to affect economies across Latin America and the Caribbean for the rest of the year.

ECLAC released its special report on Friday. The report looks at the economic impact of the conflict that began on February 28, 2026, in and around Iran. It also examines the effects of disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s busiest oil routes.

ECLAC Executive Secretary José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs said the conflict shows how connected the global economy has become. He explained that problems in one region can quickly spread to other countries. He added that the impact depends on each country’s trade links, production, and economy.

The report comes during a period of uncertainty. Last month, the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding. The agreement aimed to stop military attacks, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and allow both sides to negotiate a lasting peace. However, fighting resumed on July 6. Days later, questions about the ceasefire created fresh uncertainty.

ECLAC says markets will not recover overnight, even if the ceasefire holds. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains below normal levels. Security concerns continue to slow trade. Higher insurance costs also make shipping more expensive.

The agency expects Brent crude oil to average between US$75 and US$80 per barrel for the rest of 2026. That would make this year’s average price about 20 to 25 percent higher than the US$69 per barrel recorded in 2025.

ECLAC says higher oil prices will continue to affect the region in several ways. The report identifies six main channels through which the effects will spread. Some oil-exporting countries may benefit from stronger trade earnings and higher government revenue. However, most countries in Latin America and the Caribbean import more energy than they export.

For those countries, higher oil prices will increase import bills. Businesses will face higher transport and production costs. Consumers could also pay more for goods and services. These pressures may slow economic growth during the rest of the year.

ECLAC says governments should prepare for continued uncertainty. The agency believes the economic effects will last beyond the recent diplomatic efforts. Even if tensions ease, markets and supply chains will need time to recover.