The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that high energy prices, record public debt and risks linked to the artificial intelligence boom could threaten global growth.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva issued the warning in a speech ahead of the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok. She said the global economy faces two major forces: a negative energy supply shock linked to conflicts in the Middle East and a positive demand shock from artificial intelligence that is also adding to inflation.

Georgieva said the impact varies across countries, with the AI boom benefiting some economies more than others. She also said new IMF forecasts will show the largest growth downgrades in economies affected by war, including Ukraine and Gulf countries facing reduced energy exports.

The IMF’s previous forecast placed global growth at 3% for 2026, with growth expected to reach 3.4% in 2027. However, Georgieva said oil prices remain around $100 a barrel, while restricted refining capacity has increased costs for key fuel products.

She warned that high energy prices could continue even if the conflict in the Gulf ends soon. Higher energy costs can also increase inflation, interest rates and government bond yields.

Growing Debt Adds to Economic Pressure

Georgieva also raised concerns about rising public debt. The IMF says global public debt has reached its highest level since World War Two and could exceed 100% of global GDP before 2030.

She urged governments with high debt levels to develop credible plans to strengthen their finances. Georgieva also called for monetary policymakers to maintain a strong focus on price stability.

The IMF chief highlighted AI risks as another concern. She said AI investment could reach levels that exceed previous major infrastructure investment booms.

Georgieva warned that high expectations surrounding AI companies could create a wider financial shock if companies fail to deliver the expected productivity and earnings gains.

At the same time, she said AI could increase global economic growth if countries use the technology effectively. IMF research suggests AI could add about half a percentage point to annual global growth.

Georgieva called for stronger AI preparedness, including regulations to address job losses, cyber risks and financial stability concerns.

She also urged governments to strengthen fiscal positions, improve workforce skills, support businesses and increase energy security.