The Panama Canal restrictions could affect up to US$10 billion in annual CARICOM imports, according to the CARICOM Private Sector Organization (CPSO).

The CPSO estimates that between US$8 billion and US$10 billion in imports face higher costs and delays. This equals about one quarter to one third of the region’s non-fuel import bill.

The Panama Canal Authority has also reduced the number of ships that can cross the canal. The daily limit fell to 34 vessels from September 4. It will drop again to 32 vessels from September 15.

Low rainfall has caused the restrictions. From May through August, rainfall in the canal’s watershed ran 34% below the historical average. Water inflows also fell 44%.

Meanwhile, the CPSO expects more pressure during the 2027 dry season. That period runs from January through April. The organisation warned that a strong El Niño could further reduce water levels.

Shipping costs have already started to rise. One priority auction slot recently reached US$5.3 million. The CPSO said this was the highest bid recorded.

Major shipping companies have also added charges to some canal-dependent routes. These costs could rise further if the canal introduces tighter draft limits.

As a result, Caribbean importers could face higher shipping bills. They may also need to hold larger inventories to avoid shortages.

Consumers could feel the impact as well. Higher shipping costs can increase the final price of imported goods. Longer routes can also delay deliveries.

CARICOM depends heavily on imported goods. Food, manufactured products and construction materials reach the region through international shipping networks.

The Panama Canal is not the only concern. Disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz are also putting pressure on global shipping. Together, the two issues could push up freight and fuel costs.

For CARICOM countries that import petroleum, the pressure could spread to electricity, transport and food prices.

The CPSO is now urging governments and businesses to prepare. It wants importers to review shipping routes, costs and inventory levels ahead of the 2027 dry season.

The organisation also supports greater regional production. More trade within CARICOM could help reduce dependence on vulnerable overseas supply routes.