Below-normal rainfall will hit Antigua and Barbuda this March, forecasters warn.

The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service predicts a 75 percent chance rainfall will be below to near normal.

Most likely, the island will receive about 40 millimetres. At the same time, there is a 45 percent chance of below-normal rainfall.

By contrast, the chance of above-normal rainfall stands at just 25 percent. Therefore, dryness is the likely outcome.

Temperatures should stay near average or slightly cooler. Daily mean temperatures may reach 25.5°C.

Maximum temperatures could hit 28.5°C, while minimums may rise slightly above normal at 23°C.

La Niña conditions remain active, but forecasters say a 60 percent chance exists of shifting to neutral between February and April.

Neutral conditions could last until mid-2026. However, dry conditions will likely continue despite short-term variations.

For March to May, the service expects 80 percent chance of below to near normal rainfall. Totals may reach about 153 millimetres.

Similarly, June to August shows an 80 percent chance of below-normal rainfall. Consequently, drought concerns are rising.

The meteorological service expects Antigua to face moderate or worse short-term drought by the end of March.

By May, short-term and long-term drought warnings could cover most of the island.

Recent data show dry conditions in several areas. The northeast faced severe dryness over the three months ending January.

Meanwhile, most of Antigua experienced moderate dryness, signaling early drought stress.

In January, Antigua recorded only 50 millimetres of rainfall. Barbuda received 19 millimetres.

Limited data make drought predictions for Barbuda less precise. Still, satellite estimates suggest similar trends.

Forecasters urge residents to monitor water use closely. People should conserve water and prepare for dry conditions.

Authorities also warn farmers and businesses to plan for limited water availability.

Overall, Antigua and Barbuda are entering a dry season. Citizens and officials must act quickly to reduce drought impacts.

This outlook stresses proactive measures to protect water, crops, and daily life across the islands.