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PAHO Urges Caribbean to Brace for Winter Virus Surge

PAHO

PAHO is urging countries across the Americas to prepare for a sharp rise in flu and respiratory viruses. And importantly, the warning carries extra weight for the Caribbean, where health systems often face seasonal pressure.

The agency released a new epidemiological alert as the Northern Hemisphere enters its peak virus season. Moreover, PAHO says countries must boost vaccination, strengthen surveillance, improve hospital readiness, and support rapid diagnosis. These steps can ease pressure on health services already stretched by chronic demands.

Global flu activity continues to climb. Most cases involve influenza A viruses, which are rising sharply in North America. However, activity varies across the region. In the Caribbean and Central America, influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 dominates. Meanwhile, Canada and the U.S. report widespread A(H3N2), including growth in the emerging K subclade first seen in Europe and Asia. Although severity has not increased, A(H3N2) seasons often hit older adults harder.

Preliminary data shows the 2025 flu vaccine is working well. It appears to prevent severe illness and hospitalization at rates similar to previous years.

In addition, signals from the Southern Hemisphere offer extra clues. The 2025 season ended in early November with a 29% jump in severe respiratory infections compared with 2024. RSV mainly affected infants under six months, while influenza hurt older adults more. The season started with A(H1N1)pdm09 but later shifted to A(H3N2). Yet severity did not increase, and the new K subclade did not appear.

RSV also circulated earlier than usual and reached higher levels than in 2023 and 2024. SARS-CoV-2 peaked early, and the XFG variant became dominant without increased severity.

Now PAHO wants countries to act. Governments should strengthen surveillance for influenza, RSV, and SARS-CoV-2. They should also submit samples for genomic sequencing and investigate unusual respiratory events quickly. Hospitals should prepare for possible admission surges, especially from January to March.

For many Caribbean nations, these steps feel urgent. Many islands manage aging populations, high rates of chronic illness, and limited ICU beds.

Vaccination remains vital. PAHO urges immunization for older adults, pregnant women, young children, health workers, and people with chronic conditions. Simple actions like handwashing and staying home when sick also help slow spread.

With winter virus activity rising, early action may protect Caribbean health systems from preventable strain.

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