Only seven tsunamis have hit Spain since 365 AD, but experts warn a major one is coming. UNESCO’s Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) predicts with 100 percent certainty that a tsunami over one metre will strike the Mediterranean within 30 years.

Specifically, the danger zone is the Averroes fault beneath the Alboran Sea, roughly halfway between Málaga and North Africa. An earthquake there could produce six-metre waves. Consequently, Spanish coasts could be hit in as little as 21 minutes. In a best-case scenario, residents might have only 35 minutes to evacuate inland.

Historically, the Mediterranean has seen around 100 tsunamis since 1900, about 10 percent of the global total. While waves here are smaller than the massive Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004 or Japan’s 2011 disaster, even smaller tsunamis can cause injuries and damage.

Experts explain that the danger lies not just in wave height but also in water flows and flooding. Hélène Hébert, France’s CENALT coordinator, said even one- or two-metre waves could harm harbors, streets, and low-lying areas.

Furthermore, Pascal Roudil, CENALT technical coordinator, explained that tsunamis can arrive very quickly. He noted an earthquake off Málaga could hit the shore within 21 to 35 minutes. If the quake occurs near Algeria, the waves could cross the western Mediterranean in just over an hour.

France already has a red-alert plan for the first 15 minutes after a tsunami. Meanwhile, in 2022, UNESCO studied risks from underwater volcanoes near Sicily, which could trigger catastrophic waves. In Spain, the State Plan for Civil Protection monitors underwater earthquakes and coordinates emergency responses.

Moreover, towns like Chipiona in Cádiz are preparing for potential tsunamis. They have held mock evacuation drills and aim to become Spain’s first ‘tsunami-ready’ municipality. If a tsunami originates at Cape St Vincent, waves could reach Cádiz in just 40 minutes.

Overall, authorities stress that preparation is critical. Even small waves can pose serious risks, and residents must act quickly if warnings are issued. European countries are increasing efforts to educate and protect coastal communities in the Mediterranean and northeast Atlantic.

The coming decades could see a Mediterranean tsunami, and experts urge vigilance, readiness, and fast evacuation to prevent disaster.

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